Predicting the 2024 Election in Mid Sussex: A Poll Analysis

I’ve not updated this blog for a while – work has been rather busy. I am now on holiday though, and with the election happening next week, I’m going to try and keep an eye on the polling situation in Mid Sussex.

Today I thought we should take a quick look at some of the more recent polls. What is clear is that whilst the Liberal Democrats and Labour parties are both predicting that they will defeat the Conservative candidate, the reality is not quite that straight forward.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the predictions from reputable polling organisations:

The Economist (MRP) – Conservative hold.

The Economist MRP suggests that the Conservatives will hold the Mid Sussex constituency.

IPSOS – Toss up.

IPSOS state that the outcome of the election in Mid Sussex is a ‘Toss up’, in other words too close to call. The put the Conservatives on 30%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 25%.

Survation – Labour gain.

Survation’s data suggests a tight race in Mid Sussex, with Labour currently leading according to their polling, with 31% of the vote. According to them, the Tories will finish in second place with the Lib Dems trailing in third.

Electoral Calculus – Liberal Democrat gain.

According to Electoral Calculus, the Liberal Democrats have a 90% chance of winning in Mid Sussex. They predict that the Lib Dems will secure 45% of the votes, with the Conservatives on 25% and Labour trailing with 17%.

The Economist (incorporating data from other firms) – Liberal Democrat gain.

The Economist have also published a set of predictions which pull in data from other polling firms. In this forecast, the Economist suggests that the Lib Dems are slight favourites to win, with 28% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 26% and Labour on 24%.

More in Common – Liberal Democrat gain.

More in Common state that the Liberal Democrats will win the seat, with 40% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 16%.

YouGov – Liberal Democrat gain.

YouGov’s latest MRP suggests the Liberal Democrats will take the seat, with 36% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

The New Statesman – Liberal Democrat gain.

The New Statesman suggests that the Lib Dems will win in Mid Sussex with 32% of the vote, with the Conservatives in second place on 25% and Labour trailing in third with 19%.

The Financial Times – Liberal Democrat gain.

Based on the national polls, the FT believe that the Liberal Democrats will win in Mid Sussex with 31% of the vote share, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 24%.

Conclusion:

Taking all of these polls into account, it appears that the Liberal Democrats emerge as the most likely party to challenge and potentially defeat the Conservative Party in Mid Sussex. Their strong showing across multiple polls, particularly from YouGov and More in Common, indicates growing support and momentum in the constituency. Labour also presents a formidable challenge, particularly highlighted by Survation’s data showing significant support.

We maintain that the best way to defeat the Conservative candidate is by voting Liberal Democrat on 4th July.