Meet the new MP for Mid Sussex

The election of Liberal Democrat Alison Bennett to the parliamentary seat for Mid Sussex represents a significant shift in the political landscape of this traditionally Conservative stronghold. Her victory is a testament to her extensive campaign and the resonance of her platform with the local electorate.

Bennett’s academic background includes a degree in Social and Political Sciences from the University of Cambridge, obtained in 1999. She initially pursued a career in business, working at British Airways and later at E.on, where she focused on addressing fuel poverty. These experiences equipped her with a deep understanding of social and economic issues, which she later brought into her political career.

Her journey into politics was driven by a desire to make a tangible difference locally, a sentiment intensified by the political climate following Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Joining the Liberal Democrats in 2015, Bennett quickly rose through the ranks. She was elected as a district councillor for Hurstpierpoint in 2019, a remarkable achievement given the area’s long-standing Conservative dominance. Her election marked a significant shift, as she was the first non-Conservative councillor in the area in living memory.

As a district councillor and leader of the Liberal Democrats on the Mid Sussex District Council, Bennett’s leadership was pivotal. She helped the party become the largest on the council by 2023, forming a minority administration in coalition with independent councillors. This coalition has showcased her ability to navigate complex political landscapes and work towards shared goals despite differing approaches.

Bennett’s parliamentary campaign focused on local issues such as revitalising high streets, ensuring affordable housing, and protecting the environment. She actively opposed the expansion of Gatwick Airport and worked on local initiatives to combat fly-tipping and support refugees through fundraising for the Red Cross.

Her victory in the parliamentary election was bolstered by endorsements from unexpected quarters, including former Conservative councillor Clive Laband. Laband’s endorsement underscored Bennett’s appeal across traditional party lines and reflected a broader desire for change in Mid Sussex.

Now as the MP for Mid Sussex, Bennett faces the challenge of translating her campaign promises into actionable policies. Her priorities include addressing local economic development, enhancing public services, and advocating for environmental sustainability. Critics and supporters alike will be watching closely to see how effectively she can implement her vision for the constituency.

Alison Bennett’s win marks a significant political shift in Mid Sussex. Her journey from the corporate world to local and now national politics highlights her adaptability, determination, and commitment to public service. With her focus on both local and broader issues, she is poised to make a substantial impact in her new role as MP for Mid Sussex.

For more detailed information, you can visit the Mid Sussex Liberal Democrats website and local news coverage on the Sussex Express.

**LIB DEMS TAKE MID SUSSEX**

Result:

Liberal Democrat: 21,136

Conservative: 14,474

Labour: 9,397

Reform UK: 5,921

Green: 2,048

Monster Raving Loony Party: 352

Share of the vote:

Liberal Democrat: 39.6%

Conservative: 27.1%

Labour: 17.6%

Reform UK: 11.1%

Green: 3.8%

Monster Raving Loony Party: 0.7%

Change since 2019:

Liberal Democrat: +14.1%

Conservative: -24.2%

Labour: -0.4%

Reform UK: +11.1%

Green: -0.3%

Monster Raving Loony Party: -0.3%

Enormous congratulations to Alison Bennett, the new Liberal Democrat MP for Mid Sussex.

**BBC SUGGESTS LIB DEMS TO TAKE MID SUSSEX**

Jeremy Vine, on the BBC Election Night show, has suggested that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex. (NB This screen is based on the exit poll, NOT results).

**EXIT POLL: MID SUSSEX TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT PROBABLE LIB DEM GAIN**

The exit poll has been published and has stated that the result is “too close to call” in Mid Sussex.

That said, the poll gives a 64% chance of a Lib Dem gain and a 36% chance of a Conservative hold.

At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats.

**VOTE LIB DEM IN MID SUSSEX**

Today is election day. Whilst most of the polls (although not all) suggest that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex, realistically the seat is too close to call. There is still a possibility that the Conservatives could win here. Should the Reform UK supporters decide not to vote for a party in which the “vast majority” of candidates are “racist, misogynistic and bigoted” (Georgie David, the Reform candidate for West Ham and Beckton) and instead transfer their vote to the Conservative candidate, then the Conservatives could realistically take Mid Sussex.

Therefore, if you want do not want a Conservative MP representing you, the only sensible option today is to vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex. A vote for the Labour candidate in Mid Sussex is effectively a vote for the Tory candidate, since voting Labour will only serve to split the opposition vote.

We urge all Mid Sussex voters not to be complacent today and to get out to vote, and to put your cross in the Lib Dem box. And don’t forget your ID!

Final Yougov MRP: Lib Dem Gain

The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable win for the Lib Dems and is a significant shift for the Lib Dems from Yougov’s last MRP which had them on 36%, the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

This is another significant poll which suggests that the Lib Dems will take the Mid Sussex constituency. To this we say to those who wish to prevent the Tory candidate taking the seat, do not be complacent and vote Liberal Democrat in Mid Sussex.

Final More In Common MRP: Lib Dem Gain

In marked contrast to the final Survation poll, More In Common’s final MRP suggests the Mid Sussex seat will be a Liberal Democrat gain with 30% of the vote. They put the Conservatives in second place with 28% of the vote, and Labour in third with 24%. This is a marked change from their previous poll, in which they put the Lib Dems on 40%, the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on just 16%. This new poll represents a significant weakening of the Lib Dem potential share, and a major strengthening of the Labour vote.

This poll will not be good news for the Lib Dems.

This final poll from More in Common suggests that the result in Mid Sussex could be very tight. There really is everything to play for for the three main parties.

We stand by our advice to vote Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory candidate being elected. This is especially the case if you are considering voting Labour to punish the Conservatives. We maintain that voting Labour in Mid Sussex will only serve to split the Tory opposition vote, which could potentially see the Conservative candidate elected.

Final Survation MRP: Labour Gain

Survation, which has consistently predicted that the Labour Party will take Mid Sussex, have published their final MRP poll. This still shows that Labour will gain Mid Sussex-but by a smaller margin.

They put Labour on 29.8% – down from 30.6% in their last poll. Meanwhile the Conservatives are on 29.3% in their latest research, up from 26.1%. The Liberal Democrats are now on 25.1%, up from 23.6% in Survation’s last MRP.

Survation also state that there is a 51% chance that Labour will win in Mid Sussex, a 37% chance that the Conservatives will win, and a 12% chance that the Lib Dems will take the seat.

It is worth noting that whilst Survation has consistently shown this result, it is very much an outlier (despite but Labour would have you believe); most of the other polls predict a Lib Dem victory, hence why we advise voting Lib Dem if you wish to prevent the Tory taking the seat.

Predicting the 2024 Election in Mid Sussex: A Poll Analysis

I’ve not updated this blog for a while – work has been rather busy. I am now on holiday though, and with the election happening next week, I’m going to try and keep an eye on the polling situation in Mid Sussex.

Today I thought we should take a quick look at some of the more recent polls. What is clear is that whilst the Liberal Democrats and Labour parties are both predicting that they will defeat the Conservative candidate, the reality is not quite that straight forward.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the predictions from reputable polling organisations:

The Economist (MRP) – Conservative hold.

The Economist MRP suggests that the Conservatives will hold the Mid Sussex constituency.

IPSOS – Toss up.

IPSOS state that the outcome of the election in Mid Sussex is a ‘Toss up’, in other words too close to call. The put the Conservatives on 30%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 25%.

Survation – Labour gain.

Survation’s data suggests a tight race in Mid Sussex, with Labour currently leading according to their polling, with 31% of the vote. According to them, the Tories will finish in second place with the Lib Dems trailing in third.

Electoral Calculus – Liberal Democrat gain.

According to Electoral Calculus, the Liberal Democrats have a 90% chance of winning in Mid Sussex. They predict that the Lib Dems will secure 45% of the votes, with the Conservatives on 25% and Labour trailing with 17%.

The Economist (incorporating data from other firms) – Liberal Democrat gain.

The Economist have also published a set of predictions which pull in data from other polling firms. In this forecast, the Economist suggests that the Lib Dems are slight favourites to win, with 28% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 26% and Labour on 24%.

More in Common – Liberal Democrat gain.

More in Common state that the Liberal Democrats will win the seat, with 40% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 16%.

YouGov – Liberal Democrat gain.

YouGov’s latest MRP suggests the Liberal Democrats will take the seat, with 36% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 28% and Labour on 17%.

The New Statesman – Liberal Democrat gain.

The New Statesman suggests that the Lib Dems will win in Mid Sussex with 32% of the vote, with the Conservatives in second place on 25% and Labour trailing in third with 19%.

The Financial Times – Liberal Democrat gain.

Based on the national polls, the FT believe that the Liberal Democrats will win in Mid Sussex with 31% of the vote share, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 24%.

Conclusion:

Taking all of these polls into account, it appears that the Liberal Democrats emerge as the most likely party to challenge and potentially defeat the Conservative Party in Mid Sussex. Their strong showing across multiple polls, particularly from YouGov and More in Common, indicates growing support and momentum in the constituency. Labour also presents a formidable challenge, particularly highlighted by Survation’s data showing significant support.

We maintain that the best way to defeat the Conservative candidate is by voting Liberal Democrat on 4th July.

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #5: Lib Dems projected to win

Another projection published today, this time by the New Statesman, also suggests that the Lib Dems could take Mid Sussex:

Interestingly, the Lib Dems’ projected share of the vote has declined slightly (down from 34%) from the New Statesman’s projection of 23rd May. Conservative and Labour have remained the same.

The New Statesman’s projections are based on those from Electoral Calculus so should be relatively trustworthy. There’s more in their methodology, and how it differs from that of Electoral Calculus here.

It’s beginning to look like the election in Mid Sussex could be much more interesting than in previous years. There’s a distinct possibility that the Conservatives could lose here. Anyone of a mind to punish the Conservatives should probably consider voting Lib Dem.