Tag: dave rowntree

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #2

Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows: Cons Labour Lib Dem …

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #1

Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.” Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations, the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), …