Tag: electionpolling

So who came closest? Analysing Poll Accuracy in the 2024 Mid Sussex Election

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So who came closest?Analysing Poll Accuracy in the 2024 Mid Sussex Election Poll Liberal Democrat Conservative Labour Reform UK Green TOTAL DIFFERENCE ELECTION RESULT 39.6 27.1 17.6 11.1 3.8 N/A Yougov 43 24.5 17.4 11.3 3.7 6.5 Electoral Calculus 45.3 25.1 18 8.3 3.8 10.9 New Statesman 31.5 24.5 18.7 14.8 5.4 17.1 Electionmapsuk 33.2 …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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**EXIT POLL: MID SUSSEX TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT PROBABLE LIB DEM GAIN**

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The exit poll has been published and has stated that the result is “too close to call” in Mid Sussex. That said, the poll gives a 64% chance of a Lib Dem gain and a 36% chance of a Conservative hold. At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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Final Yougov MRP: Lib Dem Gain

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The final Yougov MRP data, published minutes ago, will delight Lib Dem supporters. Yougov’s latest data, published minutes ago, suggests that the Lib Dems will take Mid Sussex with a 43% share of the vote. Yougov put the Conservatives in second place with 24.5%, and Labour in third with 17.4%. This suggests a fairly comfortable …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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Final More In Common MRP: Lib Dem Gain

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In marked contrast to the final Survation poll, More In Common’s final MRP suggests the Mid Sussex seat will be a Liberal Democrat gain with 30% of the vote. They put the Conservatives in second place with 28% of the vote, and Labour in third with 24%. This is a marked change from their previous …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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Final Survation MRP: Labour Gain

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Survation, which has consistently predicted that the Labour Party will take Mid Sussex, have published their final MRP poll. This still shows that Labour will gain Mid Sussex-but by a smaller margin. They put Labour on 29.8% – down from 30.6% in their last poll. Meanwhile the Conservatives are on 29.3% in their latest research, …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #3

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Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.” Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly …

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Category: Mid Sussex Politics, Politics

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