Tag: electoral calculus

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #4 **MAJOR SHIFT**

In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex. Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the …

Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #1

Our first prediction is courtesy of Electoral Calculus, which claims to have made “the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the December 2019 General Election.” Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives in Mid Sussex will hold the seat. According to their calculations, the Conservatives will gain 29.7% of votes (down from a 48.3% share in 2019), …