Faith. Politics. Tech. Sailing.
by Simon
I’ve not updated this blog for a while – work has been rather busy. I am now on holiday though, and with the election happening next week, I’m going to try and keep an eye on the polling situation in Mid Sussex. Today I thought we should take a quick look at some of the …
Continue reading “Predicting the 2024 Election in Mid Sussex: A Poll Analysis”
Another projection published today, this time by the New Statesman, also suggests that the Lib Dems could take Mid Sussex: Interestingly, the Lib Dems’ projected share of the vote has declined slightly (down from 34%) from the New Statesman’s projection of 23rd May. Conservative and Labour have remained the same. The New Statesman’s projections are …
Continue reading “Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #5: Lib Dems projected to win”
by Simon
Reform UK have published more details of their candidate for Mid Sussex on their website: GARY JOHNSON – REFORM UK Gary Johnson has lived in the Uckfield area for 30 years. He is married with two children, a granddaughter and three dogs. He was educated in the state sector and states that at eighteen he …
by Simon
In what represents a significant change in projections, Electoral Calculus’ latest update predicts that the Liberal Democrats will take Mid Sussex. Updated data suggests that the Conservative candidate will take 29.6% of the vote (essentially unchanged from their previous projection of 28.7%), whilst the Labour candidate drops from a 29.1% share to 23.1%. Meanwhile the …
Continue reading “Who’s winning in Mid Sussex #4 **MAJOR SHIFT**”
Another prediction for the election outcome in Mid Sussex comes courtesy of ElectionPolling.co.uk. This site makes predictions based on a weighted average of polls, and then assumes a uniform swing. This is perhaps not as accurate as some, but as they say, “is still interesting nonetheless.” Their prediction is Conservative hold but, with a significantly …
by Simon
According to the latest YouGov MRP the Green Party will gain 9% of the vote in Mid Sussex, and Reform UK will gain a not insignificant 11%. It’s probably worth identifying who will be representing these parties in Mid Sussex. DEANNA NICHOLSON – GREEN PARTY Deanna was selected to be the Green Party PPC for …
Our next prediction for Mid Sussex comes courtesy of YouGov. Their most recent recent MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) model from YouGov (dated April 3 2024), like the Electoral Calculus prediction, predicts that the Conservatives will hold Mid Sussex. They predict that the result in Mid Sussex will be as follows: Cons Labour Lib Dem …
